Will There Be Another Pandemic This Year? (2026)

The question is not whether there will be another pandemic, but when. This stark reality has become increasingly apparent to public health experts, epidemiologists, and policymakers worldwide as they assess the lessons learned from COVID-19 and monitor emerging threats.

With new infectious diseases continuing to emerge and existing pathogens evolving, the prospect of future pandemics demands urgent attention and comprehensive preparation.

The Inevitability of Future Pandemics

History demonstrates that pandemics are recurring phenomena. The 20th and 21st centuries alone have witnessed multiple pandemic events: the 1918 Spanish flu, the 1957 Asian flu, the 1968 Hong Kong flu, the 2009 H1N1 swine flu, and most recently, COVID-19. These events follow patterns of emergence, spread, and adaptation that suggest similar occurrences are inevitable.

Experts widely agree that another pandemic is not a matter of “if” but “when.” The interconnected nature of modern society, rapid global travel, urbanization, climate change, and increasing human encroachment into wildlife habitats create conditions that facilitate the emergence and spread of infectious diseases. These factors have fundamentally altered the landscape of disease transmission, making pandemic emergence more likely than in previous centuries.

The COVID-19 pandemic, which officially began in March 2020, demonstrated both humanity’s vulnerability to infectious diseases and its remarkable capacity for rapid response through scientific innovation. However, it also revealed significant gaps in global preparedness, coordination, and equity that must be addressed to better manage future threats.

Current Threats on the Horizon

H5N1 Bird Flu: The Most Immediate Concern

Among current emerging threats, H5N1 avian influenza represents perhaps the most immediate pandemic concern. This highly pathogenic strain has been causing widespread outbreaks in wild birds, poultry, and increasingly, mammals. H5 bird flu is causing outbreaks in wild birds and poultry, other animals and sporadic human cases.

The virus has demonstrated alarming adaptability, spreading to various mammalian species including cattle, cats, and marine mammals. The fatality rate for the current strain of H5N1 in cats hovers around 67%, highlighting the virus’s lethality in mammalian hosts. More concerning, 67 human cases of H5N1 have been reported in the United States. One man died.

While human-to-human transmission has not yet been documented, scientists express growing concern about the virus’s potential for adaptation. Despite 70 documented human cases, there are no known instances of human-to-human transmission — but some scientists are starting to worry that it’s only a matter of time. The virus’s continued circulation in multiple species increases opportunities for genetic recombination and adaptation that could facilitate human transmission.

H5N1 is adapting to new mammalian hosts, raising the possibility of the virus spreading between humans. This adaptation process is particularly concerning because influenza viruses are known for their ability to undergo rapid genetic changes that can alter their transmissibility and pathogenicity.

Other Emerging Threats

Beyond H5N1, several other pathogens pose pandemic risks. It could be Zika or dengue fever, spread by mosquitoes, or another strain of influenza or coronavirus. Vector-borne diseases are of particular concern as climate change expands the geographic range of disease-carrying mosquitoes and ticks.

Coronaviruses remain a significant threat, given their history of spillover events from animals to humans. The emergence of SARS, MERS, and SARS-CoV-2 demonstrates the pandemic potential of this viral family. Additionally, other respiratory viruses, emerging bacterial pathogens with antimicrobial resistance, and even unknown pathogens could trigger future pandemics.

Factors Increasing Pandemic Risk

Environmental and Ecological Changes

Climate change represents a major driver of pandemic risk through multiple mechanisms. Rising temperatures alter the geographic distribution of disease vectors, potentially bringing vector-borne diseases to previously unaffected regions. Extreme weather events can disrupt ecosystems and force wildlife into closer contact with human populations, increasing opportunities for zoonotic transmission.

Deforestation and habitat destruction bring humans into closer contact with wildlife reservoirs of infectious diseases. As natural barriers between human and animal populations erode, the risk of pathogen spillover increases significantly. This phenomenon, known as ecological disruption, has been linked to the emergence of numerous infectious diseases.

Urbanization and Global Connectivity

Rapid urbanization creates dense population centers that facilitate disease transmission. Poor sanitation, overcrowding, and inadequate healthcare infrastructure in rapidly growing urban areas provide ideal conditions for disease emergence and spread. Furthermore, global travel networks can rapidly disseminate pathogens worldwide, as demonstrated by COVID-19’s swift global spread.

The speed of modern transportation means that infectious diseases can cross continents within hours, outpacing traditional public health response mechanisms. This connectivity, while beneficial for economic and social purposes, creates unprecedented challenges for pandemic control.

Agricultural and Food System Vulnerabilities

Industrial agriculture practices, including intensive animal farming, create conditions that can promote disease emergence and antimicrobial resistance. The concentration of large numbers of animals in close quarters provides opportunities for pathogen mutation and amplification. Additionally, the global food trade can serve as a pathway for disease transmission.

Global Preparedness Efforts

The WHO Pandemic Agreement

Recognizing the inevitability of future pandemics, the global community has taken steps to improve preparedness. Member States of the World Health Organization (WHO) today formally adopted by consensus the world’s first Pandemic Agreement, representing a historic milestone in global health governance.

This agreement aims to strengthen international cooperation, improve equitable access to medical countermeasures, and enhance surveillance systems. The accord addresses many of the coordination failures observed during COVID-19 and establishes frameworks for more effective pandemic response.

Scientific and Technological Advances

The COVID-19 pandemic spurred unprecedented scientific collaboration and innovation. The rapid development of effective vaccines using mRNA technology demonstrated humanity’s capacity for swift response to pandemic threats. These technological advances provide hope for faster and more effective responses to future pandemics.

Investment in vaccine platform technologies, antiviral development, and diagnostic capabilities has increased substantially. Research institutions and pharmaceutical companies are now better positioned to respond rapidly to emerging threats, though significant challenges remain in ensuring global equity and access.

Surveillance and Early Warning Systems

Enhanced surveillance systems are critical for early detection of emerging threats. Global networks for monitoring infectious diseases have expanded, though gaps remain, particularly in resource-limited settings. Improved laboratory capacity, genetic sequencing capabilities, and data sharing mechanisms are essential components of pandemic preparedness.

Challenges and Vulnerabilities

Global Health Inequities

The COVID-19 pandemic starkly revealed global health inequities that could exacerbate future pandemic impacts. Unequal access to vaccines, treatments, and healthcare infrastructure created disparities in outcomes and prolonged the pandemic’s duration. Addressing these inequities is essential for effective pandemic preparedness.

Low- and middle-income countries often lack the resources necessary for adequate surveillance, laboratory capacity, and healthcare infrastructure. These gaps can delay outbreak detection and response, potentially allowing local outbreaks to become global pandemics.

Political and Social Factors

Political instability, conflict, and social divisions can undermine pandemic preparedness and response efforts. The politicization of public health measures during COVID-19 demonstrated how social and political factors can impede effective response strategies. Building public trust and maintaining social cohesion are critical for pandemic preparedness.

Misinformation and disinformation pose significant threats to pandemic response efforts. The rapid spread of false information through social media and other channels can undermine public health measures and reduce compliance with protective behaviors.

Economic Considerations

The economic costs of pandemic preparedness are substantial, but they pale in comparison to the economic impact of uncontrolled pandemics. COVID-19 caused trillions of dollars in economic losses globally, highlighting the economic imperative for investment in pandemic preparedness.

However, securing sustained funding for preparedness activities remains challenging, particularly during periods when pandemic threats seem distant. Maintaining readiness requires long-term commitment and investment from governments, international organizations, and the private sector.

The Path Forward

Strengthening Health Systems

Building resilient health systems is fundamental to pandemic preparedness. This includes investing in healthcare infrastructure, training healthcare workers, and developing surge capacity for emergency situations. Health systems must be designed to maintain essential services during pandemics while responding to increased demand.

Primary healthcare systems play a crucial role in early detection and response to emerging threats. Strengthening these systems, particularly in underserved areas, is essential for global pandemic preparedness.

Research and Development

Continued investment in research and development is critical for maintaining humanity’s ability to respond to pandemic threats. This includes basic research into pathogen biology, development of broad-spectrum antivirals and vaccines, and advancement of diagnostic technologies.

International collaboration in research is essential, as pandemic threats affect all nations regardless of borders. Sharing of research data, samples, and resources can accelerate the development of medical countermeasures and improve global preparedness.

Community Engagement and Education

Public engagement and education are vital components of pandemic preparedness. Communities must understand pandemic risks and be prepared to adopt protective behaviors when necessary. Building trust between public health authorities and communities is essential for effective response.

Educational initiatives should focus on scientific literacy, critical thinking skills, and understanding of public health principles. Empowering individuals and communities with knowledge and skills can improve collective preparedness and response capabilities.

FAQs About Future Pandemics

Can AI Predict The Next Pandemic?

Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to play a critical role in predicting and preparing for future pandemics, but it is not a crystal ball. AI excels at analyzing vast datasets, identifying patterns, and forecasting potential outbreaks based on early signals—such as unusual spikes in hospital visits, viral genome changes, or environmental factors. Tools like machine learning and predictive modeling can flag emerging threats faster than traditional methods. However, AI is only as good as the data it receives. Inaccurate, incomplete, or delayed data can reduce its effectiveness. While AI can significantly enhance surveillance and early warning systems, it cannot precisely predict when or where the next pandemic will strike. It’s a powerful tool for risk assessment and preparedness—not a guaranteed forecaster.

Is COVID Coming Back?

COVID-19 hasn’t entirely disappeared and likely never will. Instead, it has shifted from a global emergency to an ongoing public health concern. Like the flu, COVID-19 continues to evolve, with new variants periodically emerging and causing localized surges in cases.

While current variants tend to be less severe in most healthy individuals—especially among those who are vaccinated—vulnerable populations, including the elderly and immunocompromised, remain at risk.

Health experts expect COVID-19 to continue circulating seasonally or in waves, particularly in colder months. Monitoring variants, maintaining vaccine updates, and staying vigilant about respiratory hygiene remain key to minimizing its long-term impact.

Is The Healthcare System Ready For Another Pandemic?

The healthcare system is better prepared now than it was before COVID-19, but significant gaps remain. Since the pandemic, many hospitals have invested in surge capacity, telehealth services, and better stockpiles of critical supplies like PPE and ventilators.

However, systemic challenges—such as healthcare worker shortages, uneven funding, limited ICU space, and fragmented public health infrastructure—still persist. Additionally, smaller or rural hospitals often lack the resources to respond to large-scale outbreaks.

While lessons from COVID-19 have led to improvements in preparedness, resilience varies widely across regions, and many experts argue that sustained investment and reform are still urgently needed to ensure readiness for the next pandemic.

Why Will There Be Another Pandemic?

Another pandemic is considered inevitable by most public health experts due to the ongoing and accelerating conditions that increase the risk of infectious disease spread. Factors such as global travel, urban overcrowding, climate change, deforestation, and close human-animal interactions make it easier for pathogens to jump from animals to humans (a process called zoonotic spillover).

New diseases are constantly emerging, and existing viruses continue to mutate. The world’s interconnectedness means that once a virus begins to spread, it can quickly reach global proportions. Despite technological and medical advances, these underlying drivers make future pandemics not just possible—but likely.

What Will Be The Next Pandemic?

No one can say for certain what the next pandemic will be, but several pathogens are on the global watchlist. H5N1 bird flu is a top concern due to its high fatality rate in some mammals and increasing transmission to humans.

Other possibilities include novel coronaviruses, drug-resistant bacterial infections, or reemerging diseases like Ebola or Zika. Climate change is also expanding the range of mosquito-borne illnesses like dengue and chikungunya.

The “next big one” could even stem from a virus we haven’t yet discovered—often referred to as “Disease X” by the World Health Organization.

Final Thoughts

The question of whether there will be another pandemic has a clear answer: yes, there will be. The challenge lies not in preventing all future pandemics, which is impossible, but in preparing for them effectively to minimize their impact on human health, society, and the global economy.

Current threats, particularly H5N1 bird flu, remind us that pandemic risks are ever-present and evolving. While significant progress has been made in global preparedness since COVID-19, substantial work remains to address vulnerabilities and build resilient systems capable of responding to future threats.

The path forward requires sustained commitment from governments, international organizations, the scientific community, and civil society. Investment in surveillance systems, research and development, health system strengthening, and global cooperation is essential. Equally important is addressing underlying factors that increase pandemic risk, including climate change, environmental degradation, and global health inequities.

Ultimately, pandemic preparedness is not just a public health issue but a matter of global security and economic stability. The cost of preparedness is significant, but the cost of unpreparedness, as demonstrated by COVID-19, is far greater. By learning from past experiences and addressing current challenges, humanity can build a more resilient and prepared world capable of facing future pandemic threats with greater confidence and effectiveness.

The next pandemic may be inevitable, but its impact is not predetermined. Through collective action, scientific innovation, and sustained commitment to preparedness, we can work toward a future where pandemics, while still occurring, cause less disruption and suffering than those we have experienced in the past.